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The citizens of New Orleans are pretty nervous right now, making plans to evacuate. Businesses implementing their emergency plans. Our organization is definitely better prepared than we were for Katrina. The outcome could be the same storms don’t follow scripts. Every one is different and you never know what might happen. I am not pushing the panic button yet. I have been through this drill many times and know that what they project today may not be the case tomorrow. I won’t predict whether we will get hit or not, I am ready to go if I have to but I won’t if I don’t. I have seen people over the last couple of days whose emotions run from fear to depression. I am feeling somewhat indifferent, there is nothing I can do to change what will happen I am going to go with the flow and hope for the best. With any luck this thing won’t come our way. The problem is that it is going to go someones way and that can really ruin a person’s day and in some cases their lives. Everyone who lives here and who lived here during Katrina and the federal flood should have made plans already.

New Orleanians are a little on edge right now, with Gustav predicted to become a three and most of the models are still pointing at us I can’t blame them. I am in pretty good shape all I need to do is put some gas in the car and wait to see what happens. Work was crazy, crazy today, making emergency preparations and still taking care of normal business made for a wild and stressful day. It will probably be even more so tomorrow. My responsibilities are different now and deal more with emrgency communications instead of server protection and restoration. I may take a trip to Wal Mart tonight a friend needs to pick some stuff up. I don’t really need anything but I want to see what a zoo it is out there. Not to mention the fact that it might be the last time you see the store before it is looted.

It is still kind of early to trust the models completely, although it does look like we have as good a shot as anybody of getting hit. I can’t remember when I have ever seen this community take a storm that is as far away as Gustav so seriously. I guess some of us learned our lesson, or gained a little respect for what these storms can do. So much for my beat the burnout weekend, I have a feeling that I am not going to get a lot of rest this weekend.

We have been extremely lucky over the last three years, we haven’t even had a real threat from a storm. Gustav certainly has everybody’s attention. There was a time when I would have laughed it off thinking if a storm comes through it will disrupt our lives for a few days and things will go back to normal. Since Katrina my thoughts on hurricanes have changed. It’s been three years and the City of New Orleans is nowhere near recovered from our last hit. I was looking forward to a relaxing weekend to recharge my burned out batteries but it looks like I will have to watch the weather a lot. We seem to be in the middle of the cone of uncertainty right now, that could be a good thing because these models and projected paths have a tendency to change over time.

I don’t have any preparation to do, I don’t have a lot of food in the fridge I have water, and this time I have a car so I can get out of town if I need to. At work this should be a very disruptive at our busiest time of year disaster preparations will go into effect. As always all you can do in these situations is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully our mayor and other elected officials are prepared this time and won’t be found cowering in the Sheraton. If this storm gets big and heads our way I won’t be staying this time, there just isn’t any point.

I love watching Margaret Orr showing where every possible model might take this storm. A storm that initially wasn’t supposed to come anywhere close to us could possibly move west and affect us in some way. I don’t think this is anything to worry about but it does show that with all the computer modeling and predictions hurricane paths are still unpredictable. I remember as Katrina hit the gulf, it was supposed to hit well east of us. Those predictions soon changed and there was a bulls eye on New Orleans. We have a couple of more months of this, if the predictions of the number of storms that are supposed to form this year are accurate we will be seeing a lot more of the computer models and the cone of uncertainty.

It’s that time of year, Dolly looks like it will be the first storm to get into the gulf this year. Dolly being the fourth named storm of the year means, at least according to the storm odds makers that we have thirteen or fourteen to go this year. Of course who really knows. I don’t have the same anxieties that I have had over the last couple of years, we have been lucky lately. New Orleans is not ready for another big one, to think that the city is protected from a major storm is wishful thinking. As the tropics heat up all we can do in New Orleans is to keep our fingers crossed and hope that nothing big comes our way.

I found this video while going through some old media files it is a clip of hurricane Lili from my front porch.
Lili was the 12th storm of 2002, and the fourth hurricane.

Hurricane Lili

I came across this little blurb from the Associated Press.

From AP:

Officials in New Orleans and surrounding parishes insist there will be no shelter of last resort if a major hurricane targets the area.

Mandatory evacuations for southeast Louisiana will be ordered if a category 3 or higher storm heads this way. But evacuating the estimated 39,000 people who may have no way to leave will not be easy.

Louisiana has negotiated for 700 coach-style buses to carry people out of the area. But Matthew Kallmyer, deputy director of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness, says those may not be available if other states snap them up first. With a widespread threat, demand by states from Texas to Florida would quickly syphon off available buses.

If the city has negotiated for the buses how can someone else take them. This does not instill confidence that the city can evacuate those without transportation. What if contra flow is in effect how will they be able to get 700 buses in or out of here. With the ongoing investigation into the effectiveness of 311 system which is what citizens use to make evacuation reservations and a possible lack of buses, will everyone get out? These Issues need to be addressed now.

Hurricane season is almost upon us, there is already a disturbance that the weather folks are watching. The city has announced that they will not be opening any shelters for hurricanes that are cat 3 or above.

The Corpse of Engineers seems to think that they have done a great job repairing our hurricane protection but some have doubts. A letter from Matt McBride posted at Humid City talks about a rusty pipe issue, plus we have the leaky levees that we are told not to worry about from People Get Ready, and flood walls being
stuffed with newpapers from First Draft. Put it all together and you can say that hurricane protection in this city is a crap shoot.
Having stayed for Katrina, and never having evacuated for a hurricane prior to that, I will tell you that I will be leaving town if a Cat 3 or higher comes this way. I would highly recommend this strategy to others.